A seismic rumble was recorded deep inside North Korea early Monday morning and it was enough to register a 4.5 on the United States Geological Survey Richter Scale. This earthquake would barely cause a Californian to blink but it did succeed in sending dramatic shock waves throughout the political world. Why? Because it was man made. A Nuclear Quake triggered by a globally condemned test conducted by the North Koreans to deliberately rattle the cages of the world community.
North Korean nukes. Not a comfortable political topic and when it was followed by two more missile tests which the United Nations had specifically warned the North Koreans not to execute it succeeded in propelling one of the world's more mysterious regions back into the forefront of a political nightmare.
Why is North Korea in the news? Why do they matter? The easy answer is the nuclear potential of a volatile and unpredictable nation led by a delusional dictator. The more complicated answer is the tender political balance which is threatened. All the major players have a stake. Russia has a voice, China is right in the mix and both South Korea and Japan are unwilling to sit idle while the United States attempts to play referee with a clearly impotent United Nations as the authority. Add this to a physically weakened North Korean leader, an uncertain political successor and a North Korean military that enjoys provoking their neighbors and we have all the makings for a dangerous game of 'Who Blinks First?'
So how will this play out? Why now? And what's it mean to you? A quick history of the Koreas is in order. We've been there before. Fought a war with them and have maintained one of the world's most heavily armored borders since peace was declared back in 1953. North Korea does not like South Korea and the feeling is brutally mutual. North Korea is also one of only four remaining hard line communist countries left on the planet, the others being China, Cuba and Vietnam. Communism is not generally known for its 'open book' philosophy when it comes to government and foreign policy nor does it boast an exemplary record of human rights. The North Koreans have boldly upheld that reputation for over fifty years but with the ascension to power of their current dictator, the 'Dear Leader Kim Jong Il' that standard has been stretched.
Kim Jong Il is the second son of North Korea's first dictator and he has a reputation which depending on who you believe is just a little bit on the other side of normal. The North Korean media outlet, KCNA, claims he was born on a sacred mountain under a double rainbow and among his many gifts he is apparently quite the golfer, routinely nailing three to four holes in one per round. Why he limits himself to the dictatorship of an increasingly isolated country when he could be rolling a Nike sponsorship to Master's fame is past me but then I'm not one to claim enlightenment.
The western accounts of Kim Jong Il reveal him to be a quirky sort who travels by armored train, loves Hollywood movies, imports $700,000 of cognac a year and maintains an appetite that favors lobster, sushi and caviar which he eats with silver chopsticks. Jay Leno said Jong Il's lifestyle of drunkenness, dishonesty and sexual excess make him qualified candidate for US Congress but that's for another day. Obviously, it's good to be the king.
Not so good to be a North Korean citizen though because despite the nation celebrating his birthday as if it were Christmas, New Year's and the 4th of July all in one, Kim Jong Il's political decisions have left his country in a very hard state. By isolating his country on the international stage and refusing foreign industrial assistance his country experienced devastating floods in the mid 1990's which was followed by an epic famine that has claimed the lives of at least 200,000 North Koreans and possibly as many as 3.5 million.
Starvation makes a tough campaign platform but then dictators don't need to worry about reelection. What they do need to worry about is staying in power and after Kim Jong Il suffered a severe stroke in 2006 that question has had a very vague answer.
So North Korea is in a state of international isolation, internal uncertainty and civilian panic. North Korea is a self described 'Military First' state. Their economy and infrastructure are based on it. They rely on international aid to feed their population and as they flex their nuclear muscles and rattle their sabres that international aid gets reduced. Nobody wants a military action on the Korean peninsula. By all accounts it just wouldn't be worth it and it is not necessary. But North Korea wants to be recognized as a global player and wants the respect that goes with it. Hey, if our leaders could consistently knock down 3-4 holes in one per round I'd want that respect too.
But when North Korean media releases state sponsored decrees, like their response to the 2006 United Nations Security Council Resolution condemning the first nuclear test, that say "When a nuclear war will break out due to the war chariot of South Korean-US military alliance is only a matter of time." Well, it's going to make some people nervous when the North Koreans continue to develop and test a nuclear program.
The North Koreans are running short on friends right now and their enemies are not going to sit quietly by while they thumb their noses at international threats. An announced missile test in April was met by strong opposition from the United Nations. The UN formally told the North Koreans not to go through with that test. The North Koreans did and the United Nations drafted a letter of condemnation. A letter of condemnation? That must have really got the North Koreans scared when they opened their mailbox that day.
And that was a test for a missile which was to launch a research satellite into orbit to grow the North Korean space program. I'm not sure how they are rationalizing a nuclear bomb being detonated underground but count me cynical if I'm not 100% on board with it being part of their nuclear energy 'research' program.
It's the politics of politics though. I don't believe the North Koreans want to ignite a nuclear war. I do think they have some ulterior motives for launching this test at this time. They have a population that is starving and a dictator that is in failing physical health who would like to choose his own successor. A nuclear test in the face of global condemnation serves two purposes. One, it shows the military within North Korea that Kim Jong Il still possesses the strength the lead and should thus be allowed to make the choice for his son to succeed him and two, it gives the world another threat to deal with. This threat can be bargained for concessions to the strict sanctions that have been imposed upon North Korea and as a result feed a population which the government itself has shown neither the ability nor desire to feed themselves.
The next play is on the world leaders. It's a political test and President Obama's reaction will be interesting. The North Koreans have shown they don't have an interest in responding to either warnings or letters. The question now is how will we respond to threats?
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