"Egypt? Isn't that where they have all those pyramids?"
Yes. Yes it is...
So maybe you heard they have a little 'sumpthin sumpthin' going on over there these last few days? Maybe you've heard enough to start asking yourself "Why do I keep hearing about this?" Maybe you want to know why it's starting to matter and, to be more specific, why it's going to matter to you?
For starters pretty much anything that happens in the Middle East is going to have an impact on your daily life. There's that whole oil thing which, I must admit, I'm pretty dependant on. Then there's that Suez Canal which allows a significant portion of the world's commercial shipping traffic to flow through thus saving the arduous circumvention around the Horn of Africa. And, if memory serves correctly, there's still that situation involving global terrorism which, difficult as it may to be to admit, is centered on a belief in radical Islam.
So when a hard party rule that's kept the status quo in the world's most populous Arab country begins to ride the wave of revolution threatening both our valued ally (despot though he may be) and, far more importantly, a fragile peace with Israel...well, maybe you start getting the idea.
But what's it mean? Why now? Who's who and how did it come to this? And of far more interest, what happens next?
Well, nobody really knows what happens next but by the time your eyes have scrolled this deep into the story we may begin to see the direction the ball will roll. Friday Prayers will probably make the global headlines and might even be bench-marked as the moment when it all began to change in the Middle East. That's about 24 hours from now.
A best case scenario might mean a transfer of power and a peaceful move to a representative democracy where the good of the people comes before power, wealth and might. Could be a moment for us all to link arms, drop a few bars of 'Kum-Bay-Yah' and marvel at how cool it was to actually give peace a chance.
But, like they say in Vegas, "Good Luck With All That."
It could be the start of a worst case scenario which, in the darkest hours, means the tearing up of the fragile peace treaty with Israel, a ground war in the region and, if lunacy gets an upper hand, the first nuclear device detonated in anger since early August of 1945...
So yeah, you might say this is kind of a big deal.
So take a peek back and follow the story and let's see if we can't make our own conclusions on the subject. To refresh, a few weeks ago, mid December, a young Tunisian man who couldn't find work, couldn't pay the bills and was kept down by a government that lived by the principle "It just ain't about you" felt pushed enough that the only way out was to voice a protest. So he doused himself in gasoline and lit the match. Publicly. And The People dug it. Said, "Damn, man! If that cat has the stones to do that then I'll do this."
And thus began the Middle Eastern Twitter Revolution of 2011 which resulted in a dictator being overthrown by the populace. There was bloodshed, there was strife and the young man did eventually die. But Tunisia changed it's own history and things are looking up for them.
So The People got excited and said "Why not try that for ourselves?...well, aside from that whole lighting ourselves on fire thing..." And the streets of the region began to fill as the oppressed united their voice and called for Change.
Enter the Egyptians and despised president Hosni Mubarak. Apparently he's not so generous with the two billion dollars we Americans fork over annually to keep him from invading Israel or allowing his compadres to do so. Which is a bit odd since 1.3 of those billions are sent directly to the Egyptian military, but that's another story for another day.
Anyway, Mubarak's time is up. Or is it? The people want him gone, that much is certain. But the military hasn't weighed in yet (wait for Friday Prayers). And Mubarak's answer to The People of sacking his cabinet and promising to leave office in September just hasn't been enough to sway the protest back underground.
So what is a dictator to do? Well, he doesn't want to leave power, that much he's shown. And while the world praises the military's restraint (wait till Friday) and the protest turn towards violence the world wonders who will fill the stage once Mubarak is gone.
That's quite the question because if Egypt goes democracy then so will the region and that is something nobody thought possible. But it might not go straight democracy. Could go hard line Islamic much like Iran did in 1979 and thus the parallels are drawn. That's a fear because again, it threatens the peace with Israel which threatens everything as we know it.
I don't see that parallel though. I see a similarity along the lines of another major revolution from our modern era which has changed our world more than any other event aside from 9/11.
Beijing. June, 1989. Everybody thought the wind of change was swirling there too and that The People! would rise and rule. Then, the Communists split the opposition, made a deal with the military, sent in the tanks and Squash! so went democracy in China...
That's what I see here. Could be wrong. Hopefully I am. But the longer Mubarak stays in power the stronger he becomes. And that military? Those 468,000 active duty troops who control some 1/3 of the Egyptian economy? Well, maybe they've been silent because there's some deals being made. Deals like, "Hey, I'll give you the top spots in my new cabinet and you keep me in power, capaiche?"
So keep it tuned these next few hours. When prayers let out there could be some very serious action going on in the streets of Egypt.
And if Mubarak is still in power come Monday...well, then he may be in power for a long time to come and thus the Middle East may swing deeper into hard line rule and farther from a democratic styled government.
It's major world history and it's happening right now...
